关键词: 肝硬化, 食管和胃静脉曲张, 胃肠出血, 预后

Abstract: Objective  To evaluate the clinical value of AIMS65 score system in the prediction of shortterm prognosis and rebleeding of esophagealgastric variceal bleeding(EGVB) in liver cirrhosis. Methods  A total of 110 patients with EGVB were graded with Model of Endstage Liver Disease(MELD) and AIMS65 score. Sixweeks' mortality and rebleeding of the patients were observed. The accuracy of the two scores on predicting shortterm prognosis and rebleeding were analyzed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic  (ROC) curve  (AUC). Results  The sixweeks' mortality and rebleeding rate were 14.6%  and  17.3% in the patients, respectively. MELD and AIMS65 score for deaths were higher than those for survivors significantly(P＜0.05).The AUC of MELD and AIMS65 score for predicting 3month mortality were 0.813 and 0.825, respectively, but no significant difference was found between the two scores(P＞0.05). MELD and AIMS65 score in patients with rebleeding were higher than those with nonrebleeding significantly(P＜0.05). The AUC of MELD and AIMS65 score for predicting rebleeding were 0.599 and 0.767 with stastistical significance(P＜0.05).Conclusion  AIMS65 score is useful for prediction of shortterm prognosis and rebleeding of EGVB in liver cirrhosis. It is a simple, rapid and convenient method.

Key words: liver cirrhosis；esophageal and gastric varices, gastrointestinal hemorrhage；prognosis